Crude Oil

Here is an overview of Crude - all the calcs and details are in the chart below.

Price has had a steep rise following Jun 4th Low and is currently up +13% in around

21 days with volume at 4.45M and pitch of trend at 73 Deg. Note the first rally into

late Dec 2023 ran up +12.5% which is similar to the current amplitude with both

swings having a pitch or incline of 79% but the current move up has overbalanced

that move by around 7 days but the matching percentage points are of interest.

The second advance ran out 62 days from Low and was up +17.1% off the Low so

as this is a secondary Top its time period and amplitude are greater than the current

swing. It is important to go back and study past movements in duration of time and price

to see if there are any similarities playing out that may give us a clue as to the position

of the current move as the future is a repetition of the past which is stated in the Bible.

The other horizontal points marked on the chart are the percentage points of past Highs

and Lows and note the current price is at the 1.125% point of 81.47 so these natural

percentage levels can serve as important zones to watch for either strength or weakness

especially as we lead into Cycle points. 81.24 is 1/2 Square up from the Jun Low and

price is resting just above this point so if this is broken it could also point towards

further downside but the main factor is the Time Cycles that govern the position of

the market and either drive prices up or down. A price of 83.50 is full revolution

so that could also be another significant point to watch especially if we have a little

extended move up into that point.

Price is also currently at an important position on Angles as we move into a

Time Cycle point so this will also be a key area to watch as if we close below

the Angles we may be in a position to move lower.

Initially I was looking at the possibility of a Top into Jun 21st which appears to have

been just a stalling point where price consolidated for a few days but being aware

of this point does give us some structure to work with - today we moved above

Jun 21st all but marginally however it doesnt matter if we have broken this point

by a few pennies or by a large margin the fact that Jun 21st has been taken out

would indicate that we could be up till either Jun 28th or Jul 1st where Top is

indicated so if you are already long be careful around this time widow which comes

out across the weekend especially if we have a decent little move up into this point.

A price of 82.40 is opposite the Seasonal Degree so we have a few different sets of

calculations pointing towards a Top in this area. Out of the two dates July 1st looks like

the clearest possibility where Top could come in so my strategy would be to either

protect existing long positions leading into this time window or just wait a few more days

and observe how price moves into the target date and if we setup for Top into Jul 1st

especially if it is confirmed by a short duration extended move which can sometimes

occur. it is very important to not get ahead of the market and to try and pre empt a move

but instead wait for price to move into the Cycle point and then the market will usually

show if it is either moving into Top or Bottom and setting up against the Curve and at

that point we can take action. Once again we could use July 1st as point to set a time

based stop as price will need to hold below this point and move lower to qualify the

Cycle so by knowing these dates we are able to structure a trading plan around them .

If we do setup for Top into Jul 1st the next date to watch is July 18th which could setup

as Low but at the moment the main focus should be on either managing your current

position into the July 1st projected Top or just be wait for another few days for that

point to arrive and then if it sets up against the Curve below we could have the expectation

of a potential move down of around two weeks but stops would be set just above the

July 1st Top as we need to hold below that point in order to qualify the Cycle. The next

date comes in on Jul 29th which could setup as Top but it is quite a fair way out so we

have three dates to work with but the main consideration is setting up into July 1st

Top and once that is confirmed and in place we can fine tune things further.

The Curve below presents two scenarios with a Top into Jul 1st as the key date then a drop into Jul 18th then up into Jul 29th or alternatively in Curve No 2 it shows Top into Jul 1st then down into Jul 29th so at the moment my main concern is moving into July 1st and looking for a Top to set up there and then if we do start coming off we have the first date of Jul 18th to be aware of as potential Low which would give us around 2 weeks short so lets wait a few more days for July 1st to roll in.

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